A trader made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader just before it was made public, sparking debate about potential gains made from confidential information of American actions.
Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the month's conclusion increased in the hours before President Donald Trump stated on January 3rd that the president had been seized.
A single trader, which became a member last month and made four bets, all on Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a initial bet of over $32,000.
Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.
Platform data shows that users put the odds of a political change at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday.
But the market's assessment had increased to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the morning of the next day, suggesting a sharp shift in positions right before the social media post was made.
"That trade has all the characteristics of a trade based on inside information," commented a financial reform advocate.
Several of other individuals also made large payouts from similar wagers.
Politicians are beginning to pay attention.
A new rule introduced on the start of the week aims to prohibit federal workers from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market.
Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in the United States, with traders able to predict everything from sports to politics.
The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. However it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency.
Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting industry.
A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."
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